Friday 20 May 2011

James DeGale v George Groves: Prediction

The hype surrounding this 'grudge match' has provided a wonderful boost for the coverage of boxing in Britain, with the media lapping up the recycled story of how DeGale and Groves were once gym mates before fighting against each other in the amateurs - and then falling out after Groves earned a controversial decision.

DeGale is a heavy favourite going into this thanks to his superb natural ability. He's fast, has great reflexes, can switch-hit from his normal southpaw stance and is coming in with great form after blowing away Paul Smith in the Liverpudlian's own hostile backyard. 10-0, with eight knockouts.

Groves is 12-0 and has 10 knockouts. His form is not quite as good as DeGale's and he been scorched by some critics for a stumbled fight against dangerous (and then unbeaten) Scot Kenny Anderson, who shook Groves up and had him on the deck (after coming in at short notice) before the Londoner stormed back to take the stoppage.

There are two schools of thought from that contest - one, is that Groves is 'chinny' and has a 'leaky defence' (as DeGale as claimed with relish): the second line of reasoning is that actually Groves showed heart and resolve and eventually passed his test so deserves credit. By contrast, DeGale has not had to go that deep yet so how will he cope if - or when - he gets caught hard?

The build-up to the contest has been dominated by DeGale in full wind-up persona trying to irritate Groves to the point that George loses his focus and gameplan. These tactics remind me of Floyd Mayweather Jr going on, and on, and on - and on, and on, and on - before eventually his opponent Ricky Hatton blew-up uncharacteristically with irritation at the weigh-in, signalling he had lost the mind games.

There's no doubt Groves would like nothing better than to silence his cocky rival but from what we've seen so far Groves has remained admirably calm and composed (and dignified). With an intelligent trainer behind him in Adam Booth Groves has opted to rise above playground insults and seems genuinely - at least on the surface - convinced he has DeGale's number.

DeGale, playing the villain of the piece, seems to be the wound-up one going into this fight. It's said that he stormed out of Sky's Ringside show (when DeGale and Groves faced off), such was his annoyance with his opponent. This could work in Groves' favour if DeGale decides to neglect his advantages of speed and reach and chooses to stand and trade to make a point (Note - this was how DeGale lost in his amateur contest with Groves).

Yet, promotions and mind games might only count for so much and let's not forget DeGale was able to go into the cauldron, with boos and whistles surrounding him, as he took on Paul Smith in Liverpool. He didn't flinch, he didn't hide and looked superb in dismantling the hapless Smith. With that in mind, I find it hard to believe DeGale's experience will allow him to lose his head.

Groves has better ability than he's sometimes given credit for. Because he often lets the red mist descend and can leave himself open to shots, many place him as something of a bar room brawler. No, he's much better than that. He picks his shots well and combines excellent head and body combinations. If you watch his contest against Charles Adamu, which earned Groves the Commonwealth strap, you can see Groves at his best applying steady pressure and cutting his opponent down.

However, one reason Groves' skills are underrated comes down to a comparison with the man standing in the other corner. DeGale is surely the better natual boxer - he's so quick and reels of blinding combinations. Plus, his footwork is excellent too. He's passed his biggest tests with flying colours, easily stopping Carl Dilks and Paul Smith, who were worthy domestic fighters. The only concern is whether DeGale can take it if the fight goes into deeper waters. Behind the scenes we hear that DeGale has a good chin and has proven himself in some tough gym wars. Yet, what does he know about his weaknesses? If you listen to DeGale, he has none and his ego has been massaged by his vocal trainer Jim McDonnell - who has proclaimed his fighter as the next superstar.

For me, George Groves is potentially a brilliant boxer but DeGale is a potentially even better boxer. Based on natural skills DeGale should win but I would expect Groves to make things tough through sheer will and bravery. If DeGale sticks to a sensible gameplan that utilises his movement I think he can pick off Groves and get though his defence. In my opinion, Groves' best hope is to try and get the fight into the later stretches when DeGale's sharpness may have diminished a little. He could then look to use that conserved energy to jump on top and test DeGale to the fullest. However, I don't think it will be enough and I see DeGale winning this contest, most likely by stoppage.

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